“The agriculture community has had a very good three years, and they are still feeling buoyed by it even though you’re getting a bit drier conditions now,” McEwan told a Melbourne business luncheon. “They’ve seen prices up, but are starting to see the likes of beef and sheep prices come down, and some other commodities come down, but then again, other commodities have gone up, so they’re getting a balance there.”

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McEwan said that while agribusinesses were investing heavily in their own businesses, there were some signs of weakness in consumer-facing businesses, particularly discretionary retail where consumers were pulling back their spending.

“There is a slowdown in some parts of that market,” he said. “I think there will be some businesses that will find that a bit more difficult. But I do believe that by the end of next year, this economy will start to lift again.”

Healy said he was quietly optimistic and expected the Australian economy to avoid a technical recession, but said the soft landing over the next year would play out unevenly. “It’s not too long ago that we used to talk about a two-speed economy, and I think that kind of concept certainly comes to mind,” he said.

With a sizeable volume of mortgages set to be repriced from ultra-low fixed rates, including about $400 billion worth of home loans in 2024, Healy said the full effect of higher mortgage rates would materialise in the next 12 to 18 months.

The upshot of that, Healy said, would be reduced consumer spending and a challenging period for discretionary retail and accommodation and food services businesses. “2024 is going to be a challenging year,” he said. “There’s no question about that.”

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