“This is the start of what is going to happen to emperor penguins as we get higher temperatures and lower sea ice,” Fretwell said. “It looks like it will continue to get worse over the coming decades. Our models suggested this would happen over time. But [the results] were sharper and more sudden than previously thought.”

“We really have to see this is a wake-up call,” he said.

“But there is still time to get our act together by reducing greenhouse gases, reducing methane and changing the trajectory we are on.”

Antarctica has experienced back-to-back record sea ice coverage years, with 2023 being the lowest of all. The region currently has 15.12 million square kilometres of sea ice, about 2.54 million square kilometres below the 1981 to 2010 average.

However, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) notes that the loss rate has stabilised since the start of this month.

Scientists have recorded significant decreases in sea ice around Antarctica since 2016. While there have been small rebounds in recent years, they remain far below the record high of 2014. The image below, from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, compares sea ice extent in July 2014 to July this year.

Australian Antarctic Program scientist and associate researcher at the University of Tasmania Dr Petra Heil said the research pointed to a massive change underway in the region, which would have longer-term and far-reaching consequences.

For example, less sea ice would expose the Antarctic ice shelves to warmer water, resulting in greater melting and possible sea level rises.

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“It is one more piece of evidence that is, unfortunately, pointing in an unhappy direction,” she said.

Heil added that it was likely sea ice coverage would be below average in the coming years, which would continue to negatively impact Antarctica, as well as the rest of the world.

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