Traders almost universally expect the Fed to keep rates steady at its meeting this week, which ends Wednesday. More attention will be on the forecasts Fed officials will publish about where they expect interest rates, the economy and the job market to head in upcoming years.

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One of the first the market will fixate on is how high officials at the Fed see its main interest rate rising this year. Traders are betting on a roughly 40 per cent chance the Fed will raise rates again in either November or December, according to data from CME Group.

But just as much attention will be on what Fed officials say about next year, when investors expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates. Investors crave such cuts, which typically loosen up financial conditions and give boosts to financial markets. The big question is by how much the Fed could cut.

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect Fed officials to indicate a full percentage point of cuts next year, after raising rates one more time this year to a range of 5.50 per cent to 5.75 per cent.

Fears are strong that rates may have to stay higher for longer to get inflation fully down to the Fed’s 2 per cent target. While underlying trends on inflation continue to improve mostly, a recent up swell in oil prices has complicated things.

A barrel of US crude rose 71 cents to $US91.48 Monday. That’s up from less than $US70 in July. Brent Crude, the international standard, rose 0.5 per cent to $US94.43 per barrel. Higher prices for petrol and other fuel were a big reason that inflation accelerated in the US last month to 3.7 per cent from 3.2 per cent.

The rise in fuel prices, along with worries about rates staying higher for longer, have helped push up Treasury yields across the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.31 per cent from 4.33 per cent late Friday. It’s been mostly climbing since sitting around 3.40 per cent in May.

The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely follows expectations for the Fed, held steady a 5.04 per cent. Worries about a possible recession also continue to hang around, even though they’ve diminished with successive reports showing the economy and job market continue to hum.

Ford and General Motors were falling as a limited strike by the United Auto Workers carried into another day. Ford fell 2.1 per cent, and General Motors slipped 1.8 per cent.

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Stocks of US energy producers, meanwhile, helped to lead the market because of the rise in oil. ExxonMobil gained 0.8 per cent, and Marathon Petroleum rose 1.6 per cent.

In stock markets abroad, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 1.4 per cent following reports over the weekend that police had detained staff at the wealth management business of troubled real estate developer China Evergrande.

Indexes fell across much of the rest of Asia, as well as in Europe.