It was an own goal. With Republican leaders boycotting the investigation, the January 6 Committee – with two Republicans who refused to be intimidated by Trump, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger – was unimpeded in producing a most stunning and compelling report.

Unlike in the aftermath of 9/11, there has been no coming together of the American people on the legacy of January 6. Trump said he spoke that day to “a loving crowd”. Up to 70 per cent of Republican voters believe the 2020 election was stolen. Trump’s inconsolable grievances are the springboard for his campaign utterances.

Three years on, more Republicans than ever believe that Trump was not responsible for the insurrection, that accounts of the violence were overblown, and that Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.

A friend reports that, even in the Capitol itself, on a tour taken in 2022, “January 6 was completely ignored, not mentioned once on the tour. It’s as if it never happened.”

Trump has 91 criminal charges levied against him, but he is today stronger than ever. “They’re not indicting me, they’re indicting you,” he tells his base. “I am your warrior. I am your justice.” In Trump they trust, and they want him back with a vengeance. “And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”

Trump is on the cusp of defeating his rivals in the early round of primaries beginning this month in Iowa, placing him in reach of securing his party’s presidential nomination by the end of February.

Loading

The insurrection at the Capitol – which was a near-mortal blow to the heart of America’s democracy – is today at the heart of Trump’s legal jeopardy. In a trial to occur in Washington, Trump is charged with conspiracies to overturn the election, obstructing the work of Congress and depriving people of their votes being counted.

Two states, Colorado and Maine, have found that Trump “engaged” with the insurrection and must, as prescribed by the Constitution’s 14th amendment, be removed from their election ballots. The Supreme Court will decide that issue, along with Trump’s assertion that he is immune from prosecution for all acts he did as president.

If Trump is convicted in the Washington trial, will his voters still stay with him next November? Early polls indicate that some of his voters – perhaps up to 5 per cent or more – are unwilling to vote for a convicted felon.

On January 6, 2025, Congress will meet in joint session to count the Electoral College votes and certify the winner. Vice President Kamala Harris, still in office until the inauguration on January 20, will be in the chair.

Will the man who has acted relentlessly to sow division, distrust and doubt about America’s democracy be declared the winner and sworn in – again – to “preserve, protect and defend” the Constitution of the United States? Will Trump see his insurrection through to a successful restoration?

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

Get a note direct from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here.