“Six-hourly rainfall totals between 30 and 50 millimetres are likely, with isolated falls of 70 millimetres possible,” the weather bureau alert reads.

Peak wind gusts of about 90km/h are possible in the central and northeastern ranges from this evening.

The weather bureau says the smoke haze that has blanketed Melbourne over the Easter weekend is expected to clear on Monday night or Tuesday when the cold front moves over the city.

The smoke, mostly from planned burns in Melbourne’s outer east, has hung over much of the city since Good Friday, and the Environment Protection Authority is predicting Melbourne’s air quality will be poor until late on Monday.

The haze reduced the visibility for those at the MCG watching the AFL match between Richmond and Sydney on Sunday afternoon.

Today, the weather bureau’s forecast suggests some of the Easter Monday clash between Geelong and Hawthorn will be played in wet weather, making for a scrappier affair.

In the south-west Victorian town of Colac, Jason Schram said the region had received steady rain, although they were bracing for more to come. He said there was heavy traffic through the town on Monday morning with holidaymakers returning early to Melbourne to beat the downpour.

“It’s probably the most traffic I’ve seen coming home on an Easter weekend,” he said. “It’s great for the regions that people are travelling, but not the best weather to be driving home in.”

Schram, who works in weed control in the agriculture sector, said the wet weather would be welcome on local beef and dairy farms.

“Everyone around is desperate for a bit of rain, so it’s a relief.”

On the coast, Apollo Bay resident Bob Knowles said there had been some intermittent bursts of heavy rain. “We’re not inundated yet,” he said.