Who has benefited

As all teams play the Kangaroos, Eagles and Tigers at least once, it’s those teams that have four or more combined games against the bottom three who have the chance to benefit the most.

Hawthorn could not have been presented with a better fixture than what they have over the final fortnight, for they face the Tigers at the MCG on Sunday and finish with the Kangaroos in Launceston. They should end the home-and-away campaign with a 5-0 win-loss record against the bottom three clubs, having benefited from finishing 16th last season and given more fellow lower-ranked teams to face as part of a ‘weighted’ fixture.

Carlton have had their troubles, but the Blues have cashed in, winning all four games against the bottom three to date, with the Eagles to come in Perth on Saturday. However, this is not a great time for the Blues to be heading west. They are in a world of pain with injury, and could even be without Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay for this crucial game, while the Eagles have had successive wins. That the contest will be held before a hostile Perth crowd won’t help the Blues’ hopes of regaining a top-eight berth.

Geelong have won all three so far, and have West Coast to come in round 24 at GMHBA Stadium. Mark that down as a 4-0 record and the benefit of the weighted fixture, for the Cats finished 12th last season, ahead of the Tigers only on percentage.

Essendon have an unbeaten record in four games, but have still found a way – again – to slip from finals contention. The Bombers’ woes have been against middling teams – Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide and Gold Coast.

Port Adelaide are also unbeaten in four games, helping the Power vault into the top two on the ladder, but strong form against the bottom three doesn’t necessarily guarantee a spot in the top eight. Just ask St Kilda. The Saints are 5-0 in these games, but have been out of finals contention for weeks, highlighting their issues against stronger opponents.

Of those teams that have had only the three games against the bottom three, Collingwood, the Brisbane Lions and Greater Western Sydney have made the most of their opportunities with an unblemished record, but the Magpies are all but out of finals contention, their form against teams legitimately in the finals hunt a major issue.

Who hasn’t benefited

The Swans are 2-1 in their three games, but their shock defeat to the Tigers hasn’t mattered – to date – as they sit on top of the ladder. However, should they slip against the Bombers and Crows over the final fortnight, they will regret that round four humbling.

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Fremantle are a 4-1 against the cellar dwellers but their surprise derby loss to the Eagles in round seven could have ramifications. The Dockers were cruising and had a top-four spot there for the taking late last month, but after defeats to the Bombers and Cats, and with GWS and Power to come, they face the possibility of missing September entirely.

Adelaide are 2-1 against the bottom three, while Melbourne also squandered an opportunity, going 3-1, their 35-point loss to the Eagles in Perth in round 11 one of a number of issues in a season gone wrong for Simon Goodwin’s men.

Gold Coast will have had six combined games against the Eagles, Tigers and Kangaroos by season’s end, but are ruing their 3-2 win-loss record. Had they won all five so far, they may well be in the top eight and eying their maiden finals campaign under coach Damien Hardwick.

“You’ve got to play a September brand of footy, and we didn’t,” Hardwick said after the loss to the Eagles in Perth.

For the Crows, Demons and Suns, their stumbles against the bottom-placed teams highlights why they will be having an extended holiday. And the Dockers – or Blues – may soon join them.

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