Casual punters like me have their theories.

Usually, they’re hard to prove because they don’t have the facts and figures to back it up.

Here’s another one.

Horses trained by Grahame Begg that are prominent in the market and running first-up are in it to win it, like Niance - which has won four of eight, is two from two when fresh and has come off a barrier trial.

Pondalowie ran a slick time over 1100 metres two weeks ago so don’t leave her out.

The Freedman father-son combination have Isthmus, which has earned another crack at this level after two wins in restricted grade.