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Posted: 2019-07-15 04:37:54

ANZ's economics team has crunched China's latest economic data and says its economy would have to decline to growth of 5.8 per cent in the second half to miss the government's target of 6 per cent annual growth for 2019.

"In our view, the Chinese government will not allow the quarterly growth to fall below 6.0 per cent," chief economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung writes in a note to clients.

"Last year, President Xi Jinping stated the 70th anniversary of People's Republic of China would be celebrated with outstanding economic performance. In 2018, H2 saw 52 per cent of China's GDP produced. If H2 GDP can expand by 6.0 per cent, full year GDP will still be 6.1 per cent in 2019."

Both industrial production and retail sales came in higher than expected, while GDP data and fixed asset investment met expectations. Property investment fell to 10.9 per cent from 11.2 per cent.

"We remain concerned about whether the credit expansion can boost real economic activities. We believe the People's Bank of China will continue to adopt a targeted policy as opposed to quantitative easing to support growth," Mr Yeung added.

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