The data shows a further rise in emissions in 2022 cannot be ruled out if road transport and aviation return to pre-pandemic levels, and coal use is stable.

Considerable progress has been made on decarbonising the global energy systems since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. And renewables were the only energy source that continued to grow during the pandemic, the research finds.

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To have a 50 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, 1.7 degrees and 2 degrees, the researchers estimate the remaining “carbon budget” has now shrunk to 420 billion tonnes, 770 billion tonnes and 1270 billion tonnes respectively – equivalent to 11, 20 and 32 years at 2021 emissions levels.

Australia’s ‘COVID- normal’ emissions

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Australian National University’s Professor Frank Jotzo, who was not involved with the report but briefed the media on the Australian emissions picture, said in Australia the pandemic lockdowns meant there was a 7 per cent reduction in transport emissions from 2019 to 2020.

“COVID normal will see a return to transport normal in Australia,” Professor Jotzo said. “For a long time, we have seen increases in transport sector emissions rather than decreases.”

Electricity consumption in Australia remained about the same during lockdown periods because although public buildings weren’t used, there was more energy consumed in homes, Professor Jotzo said. Industry and manufacturing emissions were not affected because production largely continued.

Australia has had a continued reduction in electricity sector emissions, year-on-year, since 2017. This is because of supply shifting away from coal-generated energy to solar, wind and rooftop solar, resulting in sustained emissions reductions.

Based on current trajectories, the federal government’s target of cutting emissions by 26 to 28 per cent by 2030 would be exceeded, Professor Jotzo said.

“If we put our shoulder to the wheel policy-wise ... then a 50 per cent [drop in emissions] by 2030 is definitely within reach,” he said.

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